P
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- P −7.23% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: −7.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (-7.2% today so far, past its big-drop line of -4.3%): After its 70 big drops in the past 5 years, P was higher a week later 43 times out of 70; half the outcomes fell between -3.1% and +5.7%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: Needham maintained Buy, raised target $150 → $185.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices P only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
147.73 +4.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
155.83 +10.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 131.26 · prior close 141.49 | |
| Bargain buy side |
135.51 -4.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
128.47 -9.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 133.62 | 2 in 10 days | 149.82 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 135.51 | 3 in 10 days | 147.73 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 137.29 | 4 in 10 days | 145.81 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 124.50 | 2 in 10 weeks | 160.80 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 128.47 | 3 in 10 weeks | 155.83 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 132.28 | 4 in 10 weeks | 151.34 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From P's daily swings (about 4.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | -4.5% | +21.2% | +67.4% | — |
| Aug 27, 2026 | -8.9% | -1.1% | +30.4% | — |
| Aug 19, 2026 | -4.3% | -2.8% | -7.0% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -5.1% | +20.9% | +43.3% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -5.0% | -7.2% | +45.1% | +105.0% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | -5.7% | +9.1% | +10.2% | +84.5% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -6.1% | +8.9% | +3.9% | +53.2% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -8.1% | +0.2% | +7.7% | +37.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among P's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 185.00 +40.9% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 13, 2026 |
156.97 +19.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 155.83 +18.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 147.68 +12.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
141.49 +7.8% |
| Now | 131.26 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 128.47 -2.1% |
| 50-day average | 114.90 -12.5% |
| 200-day average | 82.22 -37.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 80.00 -39.1% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 30, 2026 |
56.99 -56.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 11 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.