PAAS
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- PAAS +1.96% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: +2.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PAAS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
43.54 +2.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
45.08 +6.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 43.16 · prior close 42.33 | |
| Bargain buy side |
41.15 -2.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
39.75 -6.1% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 40.78 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 43.94 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 41.15 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 43.54 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 41.51 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 43.17 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 38.94 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 46.01 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 39.75 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 45.08 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 40.51 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 44.23 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PAAS's daily swings (about 2.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | -5.4% | -5.4% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -4.3% | -2.0% | -8.6% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -3.7% | -2.9% | -12.7% | — |
| Aug 13, 2026 | -9.7% | +9.8% | +3.2% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -3.6% | +5.3% | +13.0% | +1.2% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -5.5% | -3.1% | -4.4% | +10.4% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -10.3% | +1.2% | -10.5% | +8.3% |
| May 27, 2026 | -3.7% | -1.4% | -14.8% | -1.0% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among PAAS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Feb 27, 2026 |
68.06 +57.7% |
| 200-day average | 52.18 +20.9% |
| 50-day average | 48.93 +13.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 45.08 +4.5% |
| Now | 43.16 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
42.33 -1.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 39.75 -7.9% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 4, 2025 |
32.89 -23.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 31 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.