PAM
Moving with the market
- PAM +0.10% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +0.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PAM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
82.06 +1.6% reached 3 in 10 days |
83.70 +3.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 80.83 · prior close 80.75 | |
| Bargain buy side |
79.47 -1.6% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
77.91 -3.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 79.05 | 2 in 10 days | 82.48 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 79.47 | 3 in 10 days | 82.06 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 79.85 | 4 in 10 days | 81.66 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 77.00 | 2 in 10 weeks | 84.68 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 77.91 | 3 in 10 weeks | 83.70 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 78.76 | 4 in 10 weeks | 82.79 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PAM's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among PAM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jan 10, 2025 |
94.88 +17.4% |
| 52-week closing high Dec 3, 2025 |
92.27 +14.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 83.70 +3.5% |
| 200-day average | 82.89 +2.6% |
| 50-day average | 81.33 +0.6% |
| Now | 80.83 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
80.75 -0.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 77.91 -3.6% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 21, 2025 |
59.30 -26.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 17 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.