PANW
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- PANW +1.76% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +1.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, 52-week high (Sep 30): After its 12 new 52-week highs in the past 5 years, PANW typically gained 3.8% over the next week (median) and was higher 75% of the time; half the outcomes fell between +0.2% and +6.7%. An ordinary week: +0.8%. Among S&P 500 stocks after new 52-week highs, that ranks #66 of 482.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.2%#55 H | +0.8%#47 H | +2.7%#22 H | +5.9%#81 M |
| Big drop (-2.9% or worse) | 57 | +0.4%#117 H | +0.8%#205 H | +3.5%#138 H | +11.7%#38 M |
| Big gain (+2.9% or better) | 65 | +0.3%#86 H | +2.1%#35 H | +3.9%#64 H | +8.3%#57 M |
| Earnings beat | 20 | +1.3%#89 H | +1.9%#120 H | +3.3%#156 H | +5.1%#76 M |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high Sep 30 | 13 | -0.3%#310 M | +3.8%#66 M | +3.7%#178 M | -1.0%#252 L |
| 52-week low | 3 | -0.9%#229 L | -2.0%#145 L | +12.6%#4 L | +35.0%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 13 | +0.8%#18 M | +2.3%#76 M | +3.4%#170 M | +5.3%#193 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 11 | -0.1%#276 M | +3.0%#27 M | +4.4%#149 M | +1.3%#280 M |
| RSI oversold | 10 | +0.6%#133 M | +2.4%#160 M | +13.1%#13 M | +12.2%#18 M |
| RSI overbought | 18 | +0.3%#169 M | -0.3%#303 M | +1.6%#180 M | +4.7%#166 M |
| Reddit spike | 18 | +0.8%#15 M | -1.7%#74 M | +10.0%#13 M | +11.3%#4 M |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is PANW's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
RSI overbought
The 14-day RSI rises above 70.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 18 | +0.26% (-0.5 to +0.9) | Medium | #169 of 501 | 50% | +0.16% |
-4%
+9%
|
|
| 1 week | 18 | -0.31% (-2.8 to +1.1) | Medium | #303 of 501 | 44% | -0.90% |
-10%
+21%
|
|
| 1 month | 18 ≈16 indep. | +1.62% (-2.3 to +5.2) | Medium | #180 of 501 | 67% | +0.52% |
-23%
+36%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 17 ≈10 indep. | +4.67% (-7.9 to +12.5) | Medium | #166 of 501 | 65% | +3.15% |
-17%
+85%
|
Range of outcomes: all of PANW's overbought readings in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
RSI overbought by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 16 | +0.6%M vs +0.3% | -0.1%M vs +0.6% | +1.0%M vs +2.4% | +4.7%M vs +6.1% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 1 | -1.3%– vs +0.1% | 0.0%– vs +1.7% | +17.9%– vs +5.0% | +14.2%– vs +13.3% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 17 | +0.5%M vs +0.1% | 0.0%M vs +0.4% | +1.2%M vs +2.3% | +8.1%M vs +3.0% |
| Below its 50-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 18 | +0.3%M vs +0.1% | -0.3%M vs +0.4% | +1.6%M vs +1.6% | +4.7%M vs +2.9% |
| Below its 20-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
The same event split by where PANW stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest overbought readings
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 | Aug 10 @ $385.04 | RSI 70.3, +5.8% on the day | -0.3% | -2.4% | -13.0% | … |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Jun 26 @ $304.20 | RSI 70.3, +3.8% on the day | +9.1% | +17.5% | +4.9% | +23.2% |
| May 7, 2026 | May 7 @ $196.53 | RSI 70.8, +7.0% on the day | +5.8% | +21.2% | +35.5% | +85.1% |
| Oct 6, 2025 | Oct 6 @ $212.58 | RSI 70.2, +2.6% on the day | -0.7% | +0.3% | +0.9% | -12.6% |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Sep 17 @ $203.12 | RSI 70.7, +0.9% on the day | +1.3% | -1.2% | +1.2% | -7.9% |
| Feb 18, 2025 | Feb 18 @ $208.28 | RSI 71.5, +4.1% on the day | -1.5% | -9.7% | -10.0% | -6.7% |
| Nov 11, 2024 | Nov 11 @ $199.05 | RSI 72.0, +1.7% on the day | 0.0% | -2.8% | +0.1% | +1.4% |
| May 20, 2024 | May 20 @ $161.88 | RSI 71.8, +1.9% on the day | -3.7% | -4.9% | -3.9% | +13.7% |
| Feb 7, 2024 | Feb 7 @ $182.25 | RSI 75.6, +6.7% on the day | +0.7% | +1.1% | -23.1% | -16.9% |
| Jan 11, 2024 | Jan 11 @ $161.75 | RSI 70.5, +2.3% on the day | +0.5% | +4.4% | +15.0% | -13.7% |
| Nov 29, 2023 | Nov 29 @ $144.46 | RSI 72.2, +4.0% on the day | +2.1% | -0.6% | +2.1% | +4.7% |
| Oct 12, 2023 | Oct 12 @ $130.31 | RSI 70.8, +0.5% on the day | -0.5% | -2.9% | -2.7% | +24.8% |
| Jun 22, 2023 | Jun 22 @ $124.58 | RSI 72.8, +4.3% on the day | -2.1% | +1.7% | -2.3% | -8.7% |
| May 31, 2023 | May 31 @ $106.69 | RSI 70.2, +0.4% on the day | +1.6% | +1.3% | +19.7% | +11.5% |
| Mar 2, 2023 | Mar 2 @ $94.92 | RSI 71.6, +1.6% on the day | +0.9% | -2.9% | +5.2% | +14.2% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.