PANW
Moving with its cybersecurity peers
- PANW −1.56% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −1.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Cybersecurity basket -1.8% (-1.9 pts vs SPY; NET -4.0%, CRWD -2.3%, FTNT -1.9%, OKTA -1.7%): the stock moved with its peers.
- Aftermath, insider unplanned sale (Oct 12): After its 10 unplanned insider sales in the past 5 years, PANW was higher a day later 5 times out of 10; half the outcomes fell between -1.7% and +2.2%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: Amerx started coverage at Hold.
- 5 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 3 insider sales not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PANW only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
388.51 +3.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
405.82 +8.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 369.20 · prior close 375.04 | |
| Bargain buy side |
362.04 -3.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
346.59 -7.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 357.92 | 2 in 10 days | 392.98 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 362.04 | 3 in 10 days | 388.51 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 365.93 | 4 in 10 days | 384.38 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 337.83 | 2 in 10 weeks | 416.35 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 346.59 | 3 in 10 weeks | 405.82 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 354.97 | 4 in 10 weeks | 396.24 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PANW's daily swings (about 3.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -3.4% | -7.5% | — | — |
| Sep 18, 2026 | -3.1% | +3.1% | — | — |
| Sep 2, 2026 | -9.3% | +3.0% | +22.8% | — |
| Aug 25, 2026 | -3.1% | +6.5% | +14.7% | — |
| Aug 14, 2026 | -3.0% | -6.9% | -2.4% | — |
| Jul 20, 2026 | -2.8% | -9.0% | +7.3% | — |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -5.7% | +4.7% | +7.6% | +20.7% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -5.6% | -6.1% | +27.5% | +17.1% |
Big drop and big gain: among PANW's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 475.00 +28.7% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 6, 2026 |
419.91 +13.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 405.82 +9.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 396.92 +7.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
375.04 +1.6% |
| 50-day average | 373.60 +1.2% |
| Now | 369.20 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 346.59 -6.1% |
| 200-day average | 259.90 -29.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 190.00 -48.5% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 24, 2026 |
141.67 -61.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 14 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.