PARR
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- PARR −5.81% on the last session vs SPY +0.32%: −6.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PARR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
91.82 +3.6% reached 3 in 10 days |
95.88 +8.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 83.51 · prior close 88.67 | |
| Bargain buy side |
85.63 -3.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
82.01 -7.5% ↑ more often while near its 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 29% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 84.66 | 2 in 10 days | 92.87 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 85.63 | 3 in 10 days | 91.82 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 86.54 | 4 in 10 days | 90.86 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 79.95 | 2 in 10 weeks↑ 20% vs 18% | 98.34 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 82.01 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 29% vs 27% | 95.88 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 83.97 | 4 in 10 weeks↑ 44% vs 43% | 93.63 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PARR's daily swings (about 3.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 29% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among PARR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 95.88 +14.8% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 13, 2026 |
89.88 +7.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
88.67 +6.2% |
| Now | 83.51 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 82.01 -1.8% |
| 50-day average | 80.54 -3.6% |
| 200-day average | 61.84 -26.0% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 16, 2025 |
34.05 -59.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 14 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.