PATH
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- PATH +3.14% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +3.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- 1 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 46% positive over the week.
- 5 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PATH only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
13.48 +3.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
14.02 +7.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 13.47 · prior close 13.06 | |
| Bargain buy side |
12.65 -3.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
12.17 -6.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 12.52 | 2 in 10 days | 13.62 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 12.65 | 3 in 10 days | 13.48 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 12.77 | 4 in 10 days | 13.35 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 11.89 | 2 in 10 weeks | 14.35 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 12.17 | 3 in 10 weeks | 14.02 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 12.43 | 4 in 10 weeks | 13.72 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PATH's daily swings (about 3.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among PATH's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high May 24, 2021 |
85.12 +531.9% |
| Highest analyst target | 23.00 +70.7% |
| 52-week closing high Dec 8, 2025 |
19.29 +43.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 15.50 +15.1% |
| 50-day average | 14.71 +9.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 14.02 +4.1% |
| Now | 13.47 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
13.06 -3.0% |
| 200-day average | 12.54 -6.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 12.17 -9.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 10.00 -25.8% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 10, 2026 |
9.38 -30.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 5 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.