PAYC
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- PAYC +3.49% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +3.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PAYC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
244.16 +2.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
250.69 +4.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 247.35 · prior close 239.00 | |
| Bargain buy side |
233.95 -2.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
227.86 -4.7% ↑ more often while near its 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 29% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 232.33 | 2 in 10 days | 245.86 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 233.95 | 3 in 10 days | 244.16 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 235.47 | 4 in 10 days | 242.58 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 224.35 | 2 in 10 weeks↑ 20% vs 18% | 254.61 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 227.86 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 29% vs 27% | 250.69 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 231.17 | 4 in 10 weeks↑ 44% vs 43% | 247.09 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PAYC's daily swings (about 2.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 29% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among PAYC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 2, 2021 |
538.42 +117.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 250.69 +1.3% |
| Now | 247.35 |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
247.35 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
239.00 -3.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 227.86 -7.9% |
| 50-day average | 225.56 -8.8% |
| 200-day average | 157.55 -36.3% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 10, 2026 |
113.10 -54.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 12 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.