PBA
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PBA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
52.06 +1.4% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 28% |
52.95 +3.1% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 27% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 50.79 · prior close 51.36 | |
| Bargain buy side |
50.67 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
49.82 -3.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 50.44 | 2 in 10 days | 52.29 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 50.67 | 3 in 10 days | 52.06 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 28% |
| Eager | 50.87 | 4 in 10 days | 51.85 | 4 in 10 days↓ 43% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 49.33 | 2 in 10 weeks | 53.47 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 49.82 | 3 in 10 weeks | 52.95 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 27% vs 30% |
| Eager | 50.28 | 4 in 10 weeks | 52.46 | 5 in 10 weeks↓ 45% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PBA's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 27% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | +1.6% | — | — | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | +4.4% | +2.1% | -1.9% | -3.6% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | +3.1% | -3.4% | +2.2% | +6.3% |
| Mar 16, 2026 | +0.9% | +1.3% | -3.0% | +8.3% |
| Feb 4, 2026 | +1.1% | +3.6% | +5.5% | +7.4% |
| Oct 3, 2025 | +6.0% | -7.4% | -10.5% | -9.8% |
| Oct 3, 2024 | +0.3% | -0.2% | -2.0% | -11.8% |
| Sep 3, 2024 | +0.3% | +0.5% | +6.0% | +0.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among PBA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 52.95 +4.2% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 30, 2026 |
51.36 +1.1% |
| Previous close Oct 30, 2026 |
51.36 +1.1% |
| Now | 50.79 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 49.82 -1.9% |
| 50-day average | 47.85 -5.8% |
| 200-day average | 45.72 -10.0% |
| 52-week closing low Jan 7, 2026 |
35.31 -30.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 16 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.