PBR
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- PBR −1.08% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: −1.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PBR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
26.66 +2.8% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 28% |
27.58 +6.3% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 27% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 25.66 · prior close 25.94 | |
| Bargain buy side |
25.24 -2.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
24.40 -5.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 25.01 | 2 in 10 days | 26.90 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 25.24 | 3 in 10 days | 26.66 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 28% |
| Eager | 25.45 | 4 in 10 days | 26.44 | 4 in 10 days↓ 43% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 23.92 | 2 in 10 weeks | 28.13 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 24.40 | 3 in 10 weeks | 27.58 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 27% vs 30% |
| Eager | 24.85 | 4 in 10 weeks | 27.07 | 5 in 10 weeks↓ 45% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PBR's daily swings (about 2.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 27% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | +0.5% | — | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | +2.2% | -2.1% | +18.3% | — |
| Apr 29, 2026 | +2.9% | -4.3% | -14.1% | -11.8% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | +2.2% | +0.4% | +2.8% | -20.6% |
| Feb 25, 2026 | +1.0% | +0.4% | +21.7% | +14.1% |
| Jan 23, 2026 | +3.7% | +7.4% | +15.8% | +47.0% |
| Apr 29, 2024 | +1.6% | -0.2% | -9.2% | -13.3% |
| Jan 29, 2024 | +0.6% | -1.4% | -2.6% | +3.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among PBR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 27.58 +7.5% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 14, 2026 |
25.94 +1.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
25.94 +1.1% |
| Now | 25.66 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 24.40 -4.9% |
| 50-day average | 20.55 -19.9% |
| 200-day average | 17.95 -30.1% |
| 52-week closing low Jan 7, 2026 |
11.06 -56.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 26 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.