PCT
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- PCT −2.58% on the last session vs SPY +0.08%: −2.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.6× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PCT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
3.37 +4.6% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
3.56 +10.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 3.14 · prior close 3.22 | |
| Bargain buy side |
3.08 -4.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
2.91 -9.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 3.03 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 3.42 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 3.08 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 3.37 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 3.12 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 3.32 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 2.82 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 3.68 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 2.91 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 3.56 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 3.00 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 3.45 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PCT's daily swings (about 4.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | -6.8% | -12.0% | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | -7.9% | -14.4% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -7.0% | -2.4% | -32.8% | — |
| Aug 20, 2026 | -5.9% | -1.5% | -16.0% | — |
| Aug 12, 2026 | -6.3% | 0.0% | -16.0% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -13.5% | -1.4% | +14.0% | -47.2% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -7.6% | -5.5% | -3.9% | -42.8% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | -6.9% | -2.3% | -26.2% | -32.6% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | -5.6% | -11.7% | — | — |
| Mar 17, 2026 | -6.7% | -2.4% | +25.8% | +51.1% |
| Dec 18, 2023 | -43.5% | +41.4% | +13.2% | +122.1% |
| Oct 19, 2023 | -4.9% | +6.3% | -1.3% | -26.4% |
| Mar 2, 2023 | -8.9% | -19.8% | +24.6% | +24.6% |
| Jan 21, 2022 | -10.7% | -12.4% | -4.2% | +30.7% |
| Dec 20, 2021 | -8.2% | +4.7% | -21.6% | -2.4% |
| Nov 11, 2021 | -14.9% | +32.3% | +6.8% | -44.9% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among PCT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 18, 2021 |
32.69 +942.1% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2025 |
15.13 +382.3% |
| 200-day average | 7.67 +144.4% |
| 50-day average | 5.69 +81.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 3.56 +13.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
3.22 +2.6% |
| Now | 3.14 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 15, 2026 |
3.14 0.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 2.91 -7.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.