PCVX
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- PCVX −2.62% on the last session vs SPY +0.32%: −2.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PCVX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
71.89 +6.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
77.65 +14.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 65.78 · prior close 67.55 | |
| Bargain buy side |
63.47 -6.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
58.76 -13.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 62.20 | 2 in 10 days | 73.36 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 63.47 | 3 in 10 days | 71.89 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 64.68 | 4 in 10 days | 70.55 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 56.16 | 2 in 10 weeks | 81.24 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 58.76 | 3 in 10 weeks | 77.65 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 61.30 | 4 in 10 weeks | 74.44 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PCVX's daily swings (about 6.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among PCVX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Oct 16, 2024 |
117.93 +79.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 77.65 +18.0% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 5, 2026 |
73.82 +12.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
67.55 +2.7% |
| Now | 65.78 |
| 50-day average | 60.99 -7.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 58.76 -10.7% |
| 200-day average | 56.14 -14.7% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 5, 2025 |
40.32 -38.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.