PDFS
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- PDFS −3.35% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −3.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PDFS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
44.53 +5.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
47.30 +11.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 40.99 · prior close 42.41 | |
| Bargain buy side |
40.39 -4.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
38.03 -10.3% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 39.76 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 45.24 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 40.39 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 44.53 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 40.99 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 43.88 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 36.70 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 49.00 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 38.03 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 47.30 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 39.30 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 45.76 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PDFS's daily swings (about 5.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | -9.6% | — | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -10.4% | +9.1% | +11.2% | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -6.0% | +12.8% | +27.8% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -9.2% | -7.6% | -8.8% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | -7.2% | +9.7% | -0.5% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -6.6% | +14.8% | +0.8% | — |
| Jul 20, 2026 | -4.4% | -2.4% | -1.9% | — |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -9.0% | +5.0% | -4.2% | +8.6% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among PDFS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 30, 2026 |
70.79 +72.7% |
| 50-day average | 47.64 +16.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 47.30 +15.4% |
| 200-day average | 44.01 +7.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
42.41 +3.5% |
| Now | 40.99 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 38.03 -7.2% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 18, 2025 |
23.97 -41.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 25 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.