PEG
Moving with the market
- PEG −0.18% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: −0.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 12): After its 63 big drops in the past 5 years, PEG was higher a week later 38 times out of 63; half the outcomes fell between -1.0% and +2.5%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PEG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
71.46 +1.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
72.60 +2.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 70.44 · prior close 70.56 | |
| Bargain buy side |
69.67 -1.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
68.58 -2.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 69.38 | 2 in 10 days | 71.76 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 69.67 | 3 in 10 days | 71.46 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 69.94 | 4 in 10 days | 71.19 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 67.95 | 2 in 10 weeks | 73.27 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 68.58 | 3 in 10 weeks | 72.60 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 69.17 | 4 in 10 weeks | 71.97 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PEG's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among PEG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 96.00 +36.3% |
| All-time closing high Nov 26, 2024 |
88.62 +25.8% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 17, 2026 |
84.74 +20.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 84.25 +19.6% |
| 200-day average | 77.30 +9.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 72.60 +3.1% |
| 50-day average | 71.63 +1.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
70.56 +0.2% |
| Now | 70.44 |
| Lowest analyst target | 69.00 -2.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 68.58 -2.6% |
| 52-week closing low Sep 24, 2026 |
66.56 -5.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.