PENG
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PENG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Next session | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
55.34 +6.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
59.85 +15.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Last close | 51.93 | |
| Bargain buy side |
48.73 -6.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
45.05 -13.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ||||
| Patient | 47.74 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 56.49 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 48.73 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 55.34 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 49.68 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 54.28 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 43.02 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 62.68 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 45.05 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 59.85 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 47.03 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 57.34 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PENG's daily swings (about 6.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | -11.1% | +13.3% | — | — |
| Oct 14, 2026 | -13.6% | -13.6% | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | -4.8% | +1.5% | -3.7% | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -4.8% | +8.1% | +56.9% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -5.6% | +4.5% | +12.7% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -7.5% | -13.7% | -10.0% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | -5.6% | +14.3% | -7.5% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -7.8% | -2.3% | -5.9% | -3.6% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among PENG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jul 9, 2026 |
81.39 +56.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 59.85 +15.3% |
| 50-day average | 56.20 +8.2% |
| Last close Oct 30, 2026 |
51.93 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 45.05 -13.2% |
| 200-day average | 43.99 -15.3% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 30, 2026 |
16.24 -68.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 9 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from the last close. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.