PENN
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- PENN +2.44% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +2.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PENN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
14.89 +2.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
15.36 +5.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 14.88 · prior close 14.52 | |
| Bargain buy side |
14.16 -2.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
13.73 -5.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 14.05 | 2 in 10 days | 15.01 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 14.16 | 3 in 10 days | 14.89 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 14.27 | 4 in 10 days | 14.78 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 13.48 | 2 in 10 weeks | 15.64 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 13.73 | 3 in 10 weeks | 15.36 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 13.96 | 4 in 10 weeks | 15.10 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PENN's daily swings (about 2.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | -4.1% | +8.9% | — | — |
| Sep 18, 2026 | -5.8% | -4.9% | — | — |
| Aug 31, 2026 | -3.7% | +1.4% | -12.3% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | -6.6% | -1.1% | -8.9% | — |
| Jul 6, 2026 | -4.0% | -3.2% | -5.2% | -30.2% |
| May 11, 2026 | -4.8% | +3.4% | +34.6% | +20.0% |
| Apr 22, 2026 | -4.5% | +20.6% | +13.1% | +37.2% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | -5.5% | +6.5% | +30.7% | +60.2% |
Big drop and big gain: among PENN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 15, 2021 |
136.47 +817.4% |
| 52-week closing high Jun 29, 2026 |
22.06 +48.3% |
| 50-day average | 16.95 +14.0% |
| 200-day average | 16.78 +12.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 15.36 +3.2% |
| Now | 14.88 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
14.52 -2.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 13.73 -7.7% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 13, 2026 |
11.76 -20.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 32 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.