PEP
Moving with the market
- PEP +0.59% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +0.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported 3Q2026 Oct 8 before the open: EPS $2.34 vs $2.30 expected (beat, +$0.04, +1.9%); revenue $25.3B (+1.3% beat). The stock moved +3.7% on Thu's session (+4.2 pts vs SPY).
- The consumer staples ETF (XLP) +1.0% (+0.9 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 9): After its 68 big drops in the past 5 years, PEP was higher a week later 28 times out of 68; half the outcomes fell between -1.5% and +1.6%. History, not a forecast.
- 7 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 6 negative); latest: Piper Sandler maintained Overweight, lowered target $176 → $140.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PEP only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
130.94 +1.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
133.04 +2.9% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 130.04 · prior close 129.27 | |
| Bargain buy side |
127.62 -1.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
125.61 -2.8% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 127.09 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 131.49 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 127.62 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 130.94 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 128.12 | 4 in 10 days | 130.43 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 124.44 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 134.29 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 125.61 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 133.04 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 126.70 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 131.89 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PEP's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | +3.7% | — | — | — |
| Aug 19, 2026 | +1.7% | -0.3% | -8.0% | — |
| Jul 27, 2026 | +2.3% | -0.1% | +1.8% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | +3.0% | -3.2% | +1.0% | -6.3% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | +4.3% | -2.3% | -1.1% | -9.3% |
| May 12, 2026 | +1.6% | -1.0% | -4.4% | -7.7% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | +2.1% | -1.4% | -10.7% | -11.0% |
| Apr 9, 2026 | +1.7% | +0.6% | -1.8% | -11.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among PEP's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high May 12, 2023 |
173.55 +33.5% |
| Highest analyst target | 169.00 +30.0% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 6, 2026 |
165.45 +27.2% |
| 200-day average | 143.86 +10.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 143.05 +10.0% |
| 50-day average | 134.02 +3.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 133.04 +2.3% |
| Now | 130.04 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
129.27 -0.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 125.61 -3.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 124.00 -4.6% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 7, 2026 |
123.73 -4.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.