PFE
Moving with its group (XLV +2.5%)
- PFE +1.54% on the last session vs SPY −0.09%: +1.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- The health care ETF (XLV) +2.5% (+2.6 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, rsi overbought (RSI 70 today so far, above 70): After its 11 overbought readings in the past 5 years, PFE was higher a day later 3 times out of 11; half the outcomes fell between -0.6% and +0.1%. History, not a forecast.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (3 positive, 0 negative); latest: JP Morgan maintained Neutral, raised target $28.00 → $30.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PFE only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
29.56 +1.2% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
30.01 +2.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 29.66 · prior close 29.21 | |
| Bargain buy side |
28.86 -1.2% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
28.44 -2.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 28.75 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 29.68 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 28.86 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 29.56 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 28.97 | 4 in 10 days | 29.46 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 28.19 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 30.27 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 28.44 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 30.01 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 28.67 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 29.76 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PFE's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | +1.8% | +4.3% | — | — |
| Aug 31, 2026 | +1.8% | -2.4% | +0.2% | — |
| Aug 19, 2026 | +3.6% | +0.2% | -2.1% | — |
| Aug 7, 2026 | +2.1% | +0.1% | +3.8% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | +2.4% | +0.6% | +12.1% | — |
| Jul 15, 2026 | +2.4% | 0.0% | +9.9% | +16.3% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | +2.6% | -2.3% | +5.8% | +20.1% |
| Jun 11, 2026 | +2.2% | -3.7% | -7.3% | +7.8% |
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | +3.6% | +0.2% | -2.1% | — |
| Mar 30, 2026 | +2.7% | -2.4% | -5.4% | -11.9% |
| Jan 27, 2026 | +2.4% | -2.8% | +2.3% | -0.1% |
| Dec 14, 2021 | +0.6% | +6.1% | 0.0% | -4.0% |
| Nov 11, 2021 | +2.4% | +2.5% | +10.0% | +2.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among PFE's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Dec 16, 2021 |
47.42 +59.9% |
| Highest analyst target | 36.00 +21.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 30.01 +1.2% |
| Now | 29.66 |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
29.66 0.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 29.26 -1.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
29.21 -1.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 28.44 -4.1% |
| 50-day average | 27.91 -5.9% |
| 200-day average | 26.00 -12.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 25.00 -15.7% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 16, 2025 |
22.64 -23.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.