PFG
Moving with its group (XLF +1.4%)
- PFG +0.81% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: +0.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- The financials ETF (XLF) +1.4% (+1.3 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 9): After its 61 big drops in the past 5 years, PFG was higher a day later 36 times out of 61; half the outcomes fell between -0.6% and +0.9%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: Keefe, Bruyette & Woods maintained Market Perform, lowered target $117 → $115.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PFG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
108.61 +1.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
110.30 +2.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 108.12 · prior close 107.26 | |
| Bargain buy side |
105.93 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
104.31 -2.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 105.50 | 2 in 10 days | 109.05 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 105.93 | 3 in 10 days | 108.61 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 106.33 | 4 in 10 days | 108.20 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 103.36 | 2 in 10 weeks | 111.30 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 104.31 | 3 in 10 weeks | 110.30 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 105.19 | 4 in 10 weeks | 109.37 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PFG's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among PFG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 128.00 +18.4% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Sep 3, 2026 |
118.51 +9.6% |
| 50-day average | 112.53 +4.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 111.42 +3.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 110.30 +2.0% |
| Now | 108.12 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
107.26 -0.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 104.31 -3.5% |
| 200-day average | 101.25 -6.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 86.00 -20.5% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 16, 2025 |
75.78 -29.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 25 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.