PFSI
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- PFSI +7.18% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: +7.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PFSI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
58.77 +1.8% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
60.05 +4.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 61.90 · prior close 57.75 | |
| Bargain buy side |
56.75 -1.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
55.54 -3.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 56.43 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 59.10 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 56.75 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 58.77 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 57.05 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 58.46 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 54.84 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 60.82 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 55.54 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 60.05 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 56.20 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 59.34 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PFSI's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -2.9% | -5.2% | — | — |
| Sep 28, 2026 | -2.7% | -1.1% | — | — |
| Sep 16, 2026 | -3.1% | -0.5% | — | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -3.2% | +0.2% | -12.5% | — |
| Jul 23, 2026 | -2.5% | -8.2% | -8.8% | — |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -2.6% | -3.4% | -11.1% | -27.0% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -2.9% | +3.8% | +2.9% | -17.8% |
| May 29, 2026 | -2.9% | -3.1% | +3.9% | -12.2% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -2.9% | -5.2% | — | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -3.2% | +0.2% | -12.5% | — |
| Jul 30, 2026 | -11.8% | +1.5% | -2.9% | — |
| Jun 1, 2026 | -1.6% | -3.6% | +2.8% | -11.0% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | -2.6% | -2.4% | +2.6% | -5.4% |
| Jun 13, 2022 | -6.6% | -2.8% | +9.4% | +23.2% |
| Apr 12, 2022 | -1.9% | +7.6% | -2.9% | +2.5% |
| Mar 10, 2022 | -1.5% | -0.5% | -14.9% | -10.7% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among PFSI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jan 16, 2026 |
157.77 +154.9% |
| 200-day average | 88.15 +42.4% |
| 50-day average | 69.16 +11.7% |
| Now | 61.90 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 60.05 -3.0% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
57.75 -6.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
57.75 -6.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 55.54 -10.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 13 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.