PG
Moving with its group (XLP +1.2%)
- PG +0.98% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +0.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 before the open: EPS $1.89 expected (19 analysts); it moved ±1.7% on average after its last 8 reports.
- The consumer staples ETF (XLP) +1.2% (+1.1 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, rsi overbought (Oct 14): After its 14 overbought readings in the past 5 years, PG was higher a week later 5 times out of 14; half the outcomes fell between -1.1% and +0.7%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (1 positive, 1 negative); latest: RBC Capital maintained Outperform, lowered target $167 → $166.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.7× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
158.32 +1.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
160.57 +2.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 158.07 · prior close 156.53 | |
| Bargain buy side |
154.76 -1.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
152.59 -2.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 154.18 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 158.91 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 154.76 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 158.32 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 155.29 | 4 in 10 days | 157.78 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 151.33 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 161.91 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 152.59 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 160.57 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 153.77 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 159.34 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PG's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | +1.7% | +3.1% | — | — |
| Sep 22, 2026 | +1.5% | +0.1% | — | — |
| Sep 11, 2026 | +1.6% | +0.8% | +5.5% | — |
| Aug 4, 2026 | +2.1% | -1.9% | -0.2% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | +2.3% | -3.0% | -3.9% | +4.1% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +2.7% | -2.9% | -3.5% | -4.2% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | +2.2% | -2.8% | -2.6% | -1.0% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | +4.1% | +2.1% | +1.3% | +0.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among PG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 186.00 +17.7% |
| All-time closing high Dec 2, 2024 |
171.26 +8.3% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 27, 2026 |
164.72 +4.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 161.22 +2.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 160.57 +1.6% |
| Now | 158.07 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
156.53 -1.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 152.59 -3.5% |
| 200-day average | 146.66 -7.2% |
| 50-day average | 146.65 -7.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 143.00 -9.5% |
| 52-week closing low Jan 7, 2026 |
135.03 -14.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 65 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.