PHM
Homebuilders surge as long-term rates retreat
- PHM +3.05% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: +3.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 before the open: EPS $2.63 expected (13 analysts); it moved ±5.0% on average after its last 8 reports.
- Homebuilders: Long-term rates retreated, lifting homebuilder stocks including TOL, PHM, DHI, and LEN (Yahoo Finance). (Yahoo Finance)
- Homebuilders basket +4.0% (+4.0 pts vs SPY; LEN +5.2%, DHI +4.0%, TOL +2.7%): the stock moved with its peers.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.0% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.5%): After its 59 big gains in the past 5 years, PHM was higher a day later 26 times out of 59; half the outcomes fell between -1.7% and +1.3%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Barclays maintained Equal-Weight, lowered target $124 → $110.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PHM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
111.14 +1.6% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
113.39 +3.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 112.68 · prior close 109.35 | |
| Bargain buy side |
107.59 -1.6% reached 3 in 10 days |
105.46 -3.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 107.03 | 2 in 10 days | 111.72 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 107.59 | 3 in 10 days | 111.14 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 108.12 | 4 in 10 days | 110.59 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 104.22 | 2 in 10 weeks | 114.73 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 105.46 | 3 in 10 weeks | 113.39 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 106.62 | 4 in 10 weeks | 112.15 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PHM's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | -6.3% | -4.2% | +6.1% | +10.9% |
| Feb 24, 2025 | -1.4% | +0.3% | +3.8% | -3.2% |
| Jun 13, 2022 | -4.8% | -7.0% | +9.6% | -1.9% |
| Mar 14, 2022 | -4.3% | +5.1% | -5.5% | -9.4% |
Big drop and big gain: among PHM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 166.00 +47.3% |
| All-time closing high Oct 18, 2024 |
146.63 +30.1% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 13, 2026 |
141.65 +25.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 137.59 +22.1% |
| 200-day average | 123.87 +9.9% |
| 50-day average | 121.59 +7.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 113.39 +0.6% |
| Now | 112.68 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
109.35 -3.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
109.35 -3.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 105.46 -6.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 100.00 -11.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.