PJT
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- PJT +3.02% on the last session vs SPY +0.07%: +3.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PJT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
134.61 +1.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
137.68 +4.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 136.18 · prior close 132.18 | |
| Bargain buy side |
129.79 -1.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
126.90 -4.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 129.02 | 2 in 10 days | 135.41 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 129.79 | 3 in 10 days | 134.61 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 130.51 | 4 in 10 days | 133.87 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 125.23 | 2 in 10 weeks | 139.52 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 126.90 | 3 in 10 weeks | 137.68 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 128.47 | 4 in 10 weeks | 135.99 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PJT's daily swings (about 1.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | -2.9% | -3.6% | — | — |
| Sep 9, 2026 | -2.3% | -14.3% | -23.7% | — |
| Aug 12, 2026 | -2.6% | +1.4% | -4.2% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -4.7% | +5.4% | +8.2% | — |
| Jul 8, 2026 | -7.5% | +8.1% | +10.7% | -10.4% |
| Jun 29, 2026 | -4.4% | +16.2% | +13.8% | +3.0% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | -2.9% | -1.4% | -0.1% | +9.4% |
| May 26, 2026 | -2.5% | +2.7% | 0.0% | +14.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among PJT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jan 22, 2026 |
190.53 +39.9% |
| 50-day average | 160.61 +17.9% |
| 200-day average | 157.99 +16.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 137.68 +1.1% |
| Now | 136.18 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
132.18 -2.9% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 12, 2026 |
128.67 -5.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 126.90 -6.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 11 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.