PKG

Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet

• PKG −0.51% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −1.2 pts of stock-specific move.
• Aftermath, big drop (Sep 30): After its 59 big drops in the past 5 years, PKG typically gained 4.9% over the next month (median) and was higher 68% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -1.2% and +8.4%. An ordinary month: +1.9%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big drops, that ranks #20 of 500.
• Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.