PLD
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- PLD −1.58% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −1.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings today before the open: EPS $0.79 expected (2 analysts); it moved ±3.5% on average after its last 8 reports.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 56 big drops in the past 5 years, PLD was higher a week later 33 times out of 56; half the outcomes fell between -1.8% and +2.9%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.6× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PLD only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
132.02 +1.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
133.97 +2.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 128.40 · prior close 130.46 | |
| Bargain buy side |
128.92 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
127.04 -2.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 128.42 | 2 in 10 days | 132.53 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 128.92 | 3 in 10 days | 132.02 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 129.38 | 4 in 10 days | 131.54 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 125.95 | 2 in 10 weeks | 135.13 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 127.04 | 3 in 10 weeks | 133.97 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 128.07 | 4 in 10 weeks | 132.90 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PLD's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | -2.1% | -2.0% | — | — |
| Sep 2, 2026 | -2.2% | -1.6% | -4.9% | — |
| Aug 4, 2026 | -3.5% | +0.3% | -1.8% | — |
| Jul 22, 2026 | -3.5% | +0.5% | -2.8% | — |
| Jun 30, 2026 | -2.5% | +4.1% | +7.9% | -1.3% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -3.5% | -0.3% | +4.6% | -3.3% |
| Jun 1, 2026 | -3.1% | +2.7% | -0.9% | +1.4% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | -1.9% | +2.9% | +3.3% | +6.1% |
Big drop and big gain: among PLD's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 170.00 +32.4% |
| Mean analyst target | 158.23 +23.2% |
| All-time closing high Apr 28, 2022 |
150.68 +17.4% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 16, 2026 |
148.88 +15.9% |
| Lowest analyst target | 140.00 +9.0% |
| 200-day average | 136.19 +6.1% |
| 50-day average | 135.38 +5.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 133.97 +4.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
130.46 +1.6% |
| Now | 128.40 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 127.04 -1.1% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2025 |
111.94 -12.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 29 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.