PLUG
Moving with the market
- PLUG +0.69% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +0.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PLUG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
1.50 +3.5% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
1.56 +7.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 1.46 · prior close 1.45 | |
| Bargain buy side |
1.40 -3.3% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
1.34 -7.3% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 1.39 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 1.52 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 1.40 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 1.50 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 1.42 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 1.48 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 1.31 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 1.60 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 1.34 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 1.56 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 1.38 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 1.53 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PLUG's daily swings (about 3.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 3, 2026 | -9.8% | -22.5% | -28.5% | -43.4% |
| May 18, 2026 | -8.7% | +11.3% | -23.2% | -37.4% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | -8.2% | 0.0% | +25.9% | -34.2% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | -7.1% | -2.2% | +38.1% | +25.1% |
| Mar 5, 2026 | -7.7% | -3.5% | +17.5% | +57.2% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | -9.3% | -2.2% | +17.2% | +68.3% |
| Jan 26, 2026 | -8.0% | -9.6% | -17.0% | +33.9% |
| Nov 13, 2025 | -8.8% | -24.1% | -10.8% | -26.9% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -4.3% | -18.5% | — | — |
| May 7, 2025 | -1.3% | +1.3% | +24.4% | +93.6% |
| Mar 26, 2025 | -4.6% | -9.6% | -44.5% | -16.4% |
| Feb 24, 2025 | -4.2% | -5.7% | -3.8% | -50.9% |
| Sep 4, 2024 | -0.6% | +11.5% | +18.4% | +16.1% |
| Aug 2, 2024 | -6.9% | -8.8% | -19.0% | -9.3% |
| Jul 1, 2024 | -2.1% | +12.7% | +8.3% | -0.9% |
| Apr 24, 2024 | -6.9% | -4.6% | +27.8% | -3.3% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among PLUG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 10, 2000 |
1,497.50 +102468.5% |
| 52-week closing high May 27, 2026 |
4.14 +183.6% |
| 200-day average | 2.44 +67.4% |
| 50-day average | 2.04 +39.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 1.56 +7.1% |
| Now | 1.46 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
1.45 -0.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
1.45 -0.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 1.34 -7.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 27 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.