PM
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- PM −1.05% on the last session vs SPY −0.09%: −1.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Wed before the open: EPS $2.32 expected (7 analysts); it moved ±5.9% on average after its last 8 reports.
- Aftermath, rsi overbought (Oct 14): After its 20 overbought readings in the past 5 years, PM was higher a week later 13 times out of 20; half the outcomes fell between -0.4% and +2.5%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
208.78 +1.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
212.79 +3.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 203.43 · prior close 205.58 | |
| Bargain buy side |
202.43 -1.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
198.61 -3.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 201.42 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 209.82 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 202.43 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 208.78 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 203.38 | 4 in 10 days | 207.80 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 196.40 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 215.19 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 198.61 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 212.79 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 200.70 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 210.58 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PM's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | +4.1% | — | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | +2.2% | +0.4% | +6.9% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | +2.3% | -6.6% | -3.0% | — |
| Jul 15, 2026 | +2.8% | +7.4% | +4.4% | +11.1% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +2.6% | -0.4% | +2.8% | +3.2% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | +3.2% | +2.1% | +7.8% | +7.3% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | +1.9% | +3.4% | +5.8% | +3.2% |
| May 11, 2026 | +6.5% | +5.2% | +0.5% | +3.1% |
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | +4.1% | — | — | — |
| Jul 17, 2026 | +1.7% | 0.0% | -4.4% | — |
| May 14, 2026 | +2.1% | -1.8% | -5.2% | +0.1% |
| Feb 4, 2026 | +1.9% | +3.3% | -5.8% | -4.6% |
| Jun 11, 2025 | +2.4% | -0.4% | -0.7% | -7.7% |
| May 5, 2025 | +1.4% | -4.8% | +4.3% | -4.5% |
| Mar 31, 2025 | +2.3% | -4.7% | +8.0% | +12.7% |
| Feb 6, 2025 | +10.9% | +2.7% | +3.6% | +19.4% |
Big drop and big gain: among PM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 230.00 +13.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 212.79 +4.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 208.13 +2.3% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 14, 2026 |
205.58 +1.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
205.58 +1.1% |
| Now | 203.43 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 198.61 -2.4% |
| 50-day average | 189.72 -6.7% |
| 200-day average | 176.93 -13.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 175.00 -14.0% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 31, 2025 |
139.40 -31.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 19 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.