PNR
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- PNR +2.74% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: +2.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.7% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.8%): After its 65 big gains in the past 5 years, PNR was higher a month later 38 times out of 65; half the outcomes fell between -3.8% and +5.6%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Goldman Sachs maintained Neutral, lowered target $73.00 → $60.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PNR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
52.82 +1.4% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
53.72 +3.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 53.54 · prior close 52.11 | |
| Bargain buy side |
51.41 -1.3% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
50.55 -3.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 51.18 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 53.06 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 51.41 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 52.82 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 51.62 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 52.61 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 50.05 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 54.25 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 50.55 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 53.72 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 51.02 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 53.23 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PNR's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | -0.2% | -1.1% | — | — |
| Aug 31, 2026 | -2.0% | -3.0% | -12.4% | — |
| Jul 15, 2026 | -15.0% | -2.0% | +4.4% | -17.3% |
| May 29, 2026 | -0.7% | +3.3% | +8.2% | -12.6% |
| Apr 28, 2026 | -10.2% | -6.1% | -13.9% | -19.3% |
| Oct 19, 2022 | -4.3% | +4.8% | +11.2% | +23.7% |
| Sep 15, 2022 | -1.8% | -6.0% | -6.3% | +5.7% |
| Jun 10, 2022 | -3.3% | -8.3% | -4.2% | -0.2% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among PNR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 11, 2025 |
111.23 +107.7% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 23, 2025 |
109.36 +104.3% |
| Highest analyst target | 94.00 +75.6% |
| 200-day average | 78.29 +46.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 75.33 +40.7% |
| 50-day average | 58.58 +9.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 53.72 +0.3% |
| Now | 53.54 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
52.11 -2.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
52.11 -2.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 50.55 -5.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 50.00 -6.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 53 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.