PNW
Moving with the market
- PNW −0.28% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: −0.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, rsi overbought (Oct 13): After its 14 overbought readings in the past 5 years, PNW was higher a week later 9 times out of 14; half the outcomes fell between -1.1% and +1.2%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: Truist Securities maintained Hold, lowered target $101 → $99.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PNW only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
103.10 +1.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
104.41 +2.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 101.75 · prior close 102.04 | |
| Bargain buy side |
101.00 -1.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
99.72 -2.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 100.66 | 2 in 10 days | 103.44 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 101.00 | 3 in 10 days | 103.10 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 101.31 | 4 in 10 days | 102.77 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 98.98 | 2 in 10 weeks | 105.20 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 99.72 | 3 in 10 weeks | 104.41 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 100.42 | 4 in 10 weeks | 103.69 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PNW's daily swings (about 1.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among PNW's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 118.00 +16.0% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jul 2, 2026 |
108.38 +6.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 104.41 +2.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 102.93 +1.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
102.04 +0.3% |
| Now | 101.75 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 99.72 -2.0% |
| 200-day average | 98.43 -3.3% |
| 50-day average | 97.29 -4.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 89.00 -12.5% |
| 52-week closing low Dec 10, 2025 |
84.19 -17.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.