PODD
Moving with its group (XLV +2.4%)
- PODD +3.63% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +3.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- The health care ETF (XLV) +2.4% (+2.3 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.6% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.3%): After its 57 big gains in the past 5 years, PODD was higher a week later 26 times out of 57; half the outcomes fell between -4.0% and +2.9%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: Barclays started coverage at Equal-Weight, target $150.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PODD only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
136.87 +2.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
140.60 +5.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 138.79 · prior close 133.93 | |
| Bargain buy side |
131.05 -2.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
127.57 -4.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 130.13 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 137.84 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 131.05 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 136.87 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 131.92 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 135.98 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 125.58 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 142.84 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 127.57 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 140.60 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 129.47 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 138.55 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PODD's daily swings (about 2.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2026 | -3.5% | -2.1% | -5.6% | — |
| Aug 17, 2026 | -2.5% | +4.1% | +0.6% | — |
| Jul 30, 2026 | -2.9% | -15.9% | -12.4% | — |
| Jul 22, 2026 | -2.9% | +7.4% | -7.6% | — |
| Jun 30, 2026 | -3.5% | +3.4% | +8.8% | -12.7% |
| Jun 22, 2026 | -4.7% | +13.5% | +14.4% | +1.1% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | -5.6% | -4.8% | +7.5% | -10.6% |
| May 27, 2026 | -5.1% | -1.9% | +8.4% | -1.8% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among PODD's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 9, 2025 |
352.82 +154.2% |
| 52-week closing high Nov 19, 2025 |
346.36 +149.6% |
| Highest analyst target | 275.00 +98.1% |
| 200-day average | 186.49 +34.4% |
| Mean analyst target | 170.87 +23.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 143.00 +3.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 140.60 +1.3% |
| 50-day average | 140.39 +1.2% |
| Now | 138.79 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
133.93 -3.5% |
| 52-week closing low Sep 30, 2026 |
130.47 -6.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 127.57 -8.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 19 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.