PONY
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- PONY −2.42% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: −2.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.6× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PONY only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
5.36 +3.8% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
5.61 +8.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 5.05 · prior close 5.17 | |
| Bargain buy side |
4.98 -3.6% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
4.76 -7.9% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 4.92 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 5.43 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 4.98 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 5.36 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 5.04 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 5.30 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 4.64 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 5.77 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 4.76 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 5.61 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 4.88 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 5.48 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PONY's daily swings (about 3.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | -8.2% | -6.2% | -3.9% | — |
| Jun 4, 2026 | -7.8% | -13.2% | -31.2% | -24.6% |
| Mar 26, 2026 | -14.7% | -5.1% | +8.5% | -29.3% |
| Mar 3, 2026 | -7.6% | +2.7% | -28.7% | -16.1% |
| Jan 29, 2026 | -8.0% | -9.4% | -3.2% | -31.6% |
| Jan 13, 2026 | -9.5% | -0.3% | -9.0% | -28.9% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | -1.8% | +10.8% | — | — |
| Jun 22, 2026 | -5.8% | -11.5% | -13.1% | -12.5% |
| May 15, 2026 | -5.7% | +7.6% | -4.2% | -3.7% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among PONY's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Oct 2, 2025 |
24.06 +376.9% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 28, 2025 |
21.87 +333.5% |
| 200-day average | 9.87 +95.7% |
| 50-day average | 7.01 +38.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 5.61 +11.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
5.17 +2.5% |
| Now | 5.05 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 15, 2026 |
5.05 0.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 4.76 -5.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 2 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.