PPG
Moving with its group (XLB +1.5%)
- PPG +2.42% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +2.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- The materials ETF (XLB) +1.5% (+1.4 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.4% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.0%): After its 52 big gains in the past 5 years, PPG was higher a week later 31 times out of 52; half the outcomes fell between -2.5% and +3.1%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: RBC Capital maintained Sector Perform, lowered target $122 → $115.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PPG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
106.07 +1.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
107.56 +2.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 107.41 · prior close 104.87 | |
| Bargain buy side |
103.69 -1.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
102.24 -2.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 103.31 | 2 in 10 days | 106.46 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 103.69 | 3 in 10 days | 106.07 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 104.04 | 4 in 10 days | 105.70 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 101.40 | 2 in 10 weeks | 108.45 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 102.24 | 3 in 10 weeks | 107.56 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 103.03 | 4 in 10 weeks | 106.74 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PPG's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among PPG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jun 4, 2021 |
163.36 +52.1% |
| Highest analyst target | 138.00 +28.5% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 12, 2026 |
129.16 +20.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 125.24 +16.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 115.00 +7.1% |
| 200-day average | 111.09 +3.4% |
| 50-day average | 109.25 +1.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 107.56 +0.1% |
| Now | 107.41 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
104.87 -2.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 102.24 -4.8% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 4, 2025 |
92.50 -13.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.