PR
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- PR −1.18% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: −1.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
24.55 +2.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
25.17 +4.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 23.78 · prior close 24.06 | |
| Bargain buy side |
23.58 -2.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
23.00 -4.4% ↑ more often while near its 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 29% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 23.42 | 2 in 10 days | 24.71 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 23.58 | 3 in 10 days | 24.55 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 23.72 | 4 in 10 days | 24.40 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 22.66 | 2 in 10 weeks↑ 20% vs 18% | 25.55 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 23.00 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 29% vs 27% | 25.17 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 23.31 | 4 in 10 weeks↑ 44% vs 43% | 24.83 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PR's daily swings (about 2.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 29% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among PR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 25.17 +5.9% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Sep 15, 2026 |
24.33 +2.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
24.06 +1.2% |
| Now | 23.78 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 23.00 -3.3% |
| 50-day average | 22.55 -5.1% |
| 200-day average | 19.55 -17.8% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 16, 2025 |
11.68 -50.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 10 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.