PRGO
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- PRGO +2.35% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +2.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PRGO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
16.44 +3.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
17.06 +7.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 16.33 · prior close 15.95 | |
| Bargain buy side |
15.48 -3.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
14.91 -6.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 15.33 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 16.60 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 15.48 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 16.44 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 15.62 | 4 in 10 days | 16.29 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 14.59 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 17.44 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 14.91 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 17.06 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 15.22 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 16.72 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PRGO's daily swings (about 3.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | +3.9% | +9.6% | — | — |
| Sep 21, 2026 | +4.2% | +6.9% | — | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | +2.8% | +3.0% | +3.6% | — |
| Aug 19, 2026 | +7.6% | +5.7% | -0.9% | — |
| Aug 3, 2026 | +5.6% | +18.4% | +37.9% | — |
| Jul 15, 2026 | +2.5% | +3.2% | +26.4% | +54.5% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +6.9% | -7.3% | -3.1% | +29.8% |
| Jun 24, 2026 | +2.8% | +5.6% | +3.4% | +44.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among PRGO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Apr 14, 2015 |
152.95 +836.9% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 27, 2025 |
20.49 +25.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 17.06 +4.5% |
| Now | 16.33 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
15.95 -2.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 14.91 -8.6% |
| 50-day average | 14.06 -13.9% |
| 200-day average | 11.94 -26.9% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 20, 2026 |
8.83 -45.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 35 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.