PRLB
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- PRLB −3.38% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: −3.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PRLB only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
91.13 +2.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
93.88 +5.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 85.96 · prior close 88.97 | |
| Bargain buy side |
86.86 -2.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
84.32 -5.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 86.18 | 2 in 10 days | 91.85 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 86.86 | 3 in 10 days | 91.13 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 87.49 | 4 in 10 days | 90.47 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 82.86 | 2 in 10 weeks | 95.53 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 84.32 | 3 in 10 weeks | 93.88 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 85.70 | 4 in 10 weeks | 92.36 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PRLB's daily swings (about 2.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -4.1% | -4.6% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -4.6% | +12.1% | +17.4% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -6.6% | -8.6% | +1.8% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | -2.7% | +5.0% | -7.4% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -3.6% | +18.1% | +5.3% | — |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -3.4% | -4.5% | -4.7% | +20.5% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -4.6% | -1.2% | +3.3% | +5.2% |
| May 19, 2026 | -2.9% | +6.0% | +15.5% | +17.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among PRLB's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jan 27, 2021 |
251.49 +192.6% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 5, 2026 |
98.68 +14.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 93.88 +9.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
88.97 +3.5% |
| 50-day average | 86.93 +1.1% |
| Now | 85.96 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 84.32 -1.9% |
| 200-day average | 71.45 -16.9% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
46.81 -45.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 15 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.