PRU
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- PRU +1.26% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +1.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (1 positive, 1 negative); latest: Barclays maintained Underweight, raised target $92.00 → $96.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PRU only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
114.60 +1.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
116.00 +2.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 114.93 · prior close 113.49 | |
| Bargain buy side |
112.39 -1.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
111.04 -2.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 112.03 | 2 in 10 days | 114.97 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 112.39 | 3 in 10 days | 114.60 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 112.72 | 4 in 10 days | 114.27 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 110.25 | 2 in 10 weeks | 116.82 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 111.04 | 3 in 10 weeks | 116.00 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 111.78 | 4 in 10 weeks | 115.23 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PRU's daily swings (about 1.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among PRU's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 131.00 +14.0% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 14, 2026 |
123.70 +7.6% |
| 50-day average | 118.16 +2.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 116.00 +0.9% |
| Now | 114.93 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
113.49 -1.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 113.00 -1.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 111.04 -3.4% |
| 200-day average | 106.74 -7.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 92.00 -19.9% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 13, 2026 |
89.73 -21.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 25 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.