PSA
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- PSA +2.62% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +2.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.6% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.9%): After its 65 big gains in the past 5 years, PSA was higher a day later 35 times out of 65; half the outcomes fell between -1.0% and +0.7%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PSA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
291.86 +1.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
295.73 +2.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 296.33 · prior close 288.76 | |
| Bargain buy side |
285.70 -1.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
281.95 -2.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 284.71 | 2 in 10 days | 292.87 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 285.70 | 3 in 10 days | 291.86 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 286.62 | 4 in 10 days | 290.92 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 279.78 | 2 in 10 weeks | 298.03 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 281.95 | 3 in 10 weeks | 295.73 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 284.00 | 4 in 10 weeks | 293.60 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PSA's daily swings (about 1.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among PSA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 374.00 +26.2% |
| All-time closing high Apr 20, 2022 |
339.77 +14.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 335.06 +13.1% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 28, 2026 |
327.11 +10.4% |
| 50-day average | 300.99 +1.6% |
| Now | 296.33 |
| 200-day average | 295.83 -0.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 295.73 -0.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
288.76 -2.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 285.00 -3.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 281.95 -4.9% |
| 52-week closing low Jan 2, 2026 |
250.91 -15.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 46 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.