PSX
Moving with its group (XLE -1.2%)
- PSX −1.69% on the last session vs SPY −0.03%: −1.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- The energy ETF (XLE) -1.2% (-1.3 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 13): After its 59 big gains in the past 5 years, PSX was higher a week later 35 times out of 59; half the outcomes fell between -1.4% and +3.6%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Mizuho downgraded to Neutral, raised target $220 → $300.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PSX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
303.07 +1.9% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 28% |
310.38 +4.4% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 27% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 292.27 · prior close 297.29 | |
| Bargain buy side |
291.62 -1.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
284.75 -4.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 289.80 | 2 in 10 days | 304.98 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 291.62 | 3 in 10 days | 303.07 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 28% |
| Eager | 293.32 | 4 in 10 days | 301.31 | 4 in 10 days↓ 43% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 280.80 | 2 in 10 weeks | 314.75 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 284.75 | 3 in 10 weeks | 310.38 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 27% vs 30% |
| Eager | 288.49 | 4 in 10 weeks | 306.36 | 5 in 10 weeks↓ 45% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PSX's daily swings (about 2.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 27% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | +3.1% | -3.1% | +12.2% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | +5.7% | +11.6% | +21.6% | — |
| Jul 8, 2026 | +5.0% | +4.4% | +9.4% | +44.4% |
| Mar 19, 2026 | +3.2% | +3.2% | -12.7% | -6.2% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | +2.7% | -3.8% | +7.8% | +7.3% |
| Jan 8, 2026 | +4.6% | -2.9% | +9.2% | +11.3% |
| Nov 11, 2025 | +1.6% | -0.9% | +2.7% | +11.9% |
| Sep 24, 2025 | +3.3% | -1.5% | -0.6% | -4.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among PSX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 340.00 +16.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 310.38 +6.2% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 14, 2026 |
297.29 +1.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
297.29 +1.7% |
| Now | 292.27 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 284.75 -2.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 266.58 -8.8% |
| 50-day average | 253.87 -13.1% |
| 200-day average | 189.39 -35.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 173.00 -40.8% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 16, 2025 |
124.67 -57.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 14 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.