PTCT
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- PTCT +2.77% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +2.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PTCT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
61.07 +2.3% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
62.84 +5.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 61.32 · prior close 59.67 | |
| Bargain buy side |
58.31 -2.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
56.66 -5.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 57.87 | 2 in 10 days | 61.53 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 58.31 | 3 in 10 days | 61.07 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 58.72 | 4 in 10 days | 60.64 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 55.72 | 2 in 10 weeks | 63.90 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 56.66 | 3 in 10 weeks | 62.84 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 57.56 | 4 in 10 weeks | 61.86 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PTCT's daily swings (about 2.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | -4.8% | — | — | — |
| Oct 27, 2023 | -22.7% | +5.5% | +18.3% | +43.5% |
| Sep 15, 2023 | -29.8% | -8.9% | -23.8% | +5.1% |
| Jun 10, 2022 | -3.8% | +6.0% | +65.7% | +98.0% |
| May 9, 2022 | -7.4% | -0.2% | -8.8% | +67.6% |
| Feb 28, 2022 | -1.5% | -3.8% | +10.7% | -13.6% |
| Dec 3, 2021 | -4.7% | 0.0% | +15.7% | -4.4% |
Big drop and big gain: among PTCT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jul 9, 2026 |
89.55 +46.0% |
| 200-day average | 71.49 +16.6% |
| 50-day average | 67.73 +10.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 62.84 +2.5% |
| Now | 61.32 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
59.67 -2.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
59.67 -2.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 56.66 -7.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 13 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.