PWR
Analyst cuts weighing on the stock
- PWR −4.18% on the last session vs SPY +0.13%: −4.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (-4.2% today so far, past its big-drop line of -2.7%): After its 60 big drops in the past 5 years, PWR was higher a week later 42 times out of 60; half the outcomes fell between -1.5% and +4.1%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Truist Securities maintained Buy, lowered target $976 → $945.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PWR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
677.30 +2.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
698.62 +5.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 632.92 · prior close 660.53 | |
| Bargain buy side |
644.17 -2.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
624.52 -5.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 638.95 | 2 in 10 days | 682.84 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 644.17 | 3 in 10 days | 677.30 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 649.08 | 4 in 10 days | 672.18 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 613.25 | 2 in 10 weeks | 711.46 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 624.52 | 3 in 10 weeks | 698.62 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 635.21 | 4 in 10 weeks | 686.86 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PWR's daily swings (about 2.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | -4.4% | +3.3% | +10.8% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -3.1% | +3.6% | +8.1% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -3.6% | -13.3% | -11.4% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -4.3% | +6.6% | -1.4% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -2.7% | +3.6% | +8.7% | +4.7% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -4.0% | -3.4% | -3.5% | -7.1% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -5.1% | +2.5% | -6.9% | -8.5% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | -5.9% | +9.8% | -0.6% | -4.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among PWR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 945.00 +49.3% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high May 6, 2026 |
784.99 +24.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 766.01 +21.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 698.62 +10.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
660.53 +4.4% |
| 50-day average | 650.86 +2.8% |
| Now | 632.92 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 624.52 -1.3% |
| 200-day average | 616.99 -2.5% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 22, 2025 |
411.89 -34.9% |
| Lowest analyst target | 410.00 -35.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 29 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.