Q
Moving with its group (SMH -1.8%)
- Q −3.31% on the last session vs SPY +0.08%: −3.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- The semiconductor ETF (SMH) -1.8% (-1.9 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices Q only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
124.31 +2.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
127.71 +5.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 117.60 · prior close 121.62 | |
| Bargain buy side |
118.99 -2.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
115.82 -4.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 118.15 | 2 in 10 days | 125.19 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 118.99 | 3 in 10 days | 124.31 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 119.78 | 4 in 10 days | 123.49 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 114.00 | 2 in 10 weeks | 129.75 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 115.82 | 3 in 10 weeks | 127.71 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 117.55 | 4 in 10 weeks | 125.83 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From Q's daily swings (about 2.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among Q's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 189.00 +60.7% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 22, 2026 |
175.52 +49.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 174.25 +48.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 150.00 +27.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 127.71 +8.6% |
| 200-day average | 127.60 +8.5% |
| 50-day average | 126.39 +7.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
121.62 +3.4% |
| Now | 117.60 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 115.82 -1.5% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 24, 2025 |
73.35 -37.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 1 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.