QFIN
Moving with the market
- QFIN +0.62% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +0.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices QFIN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
5.87 +3.1% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
6.10 +7.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 5.72 · prior close 5.69 | |
| Bargain buy side |
5.52 -3.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
5.31 -6.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 5.46 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 5.93 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 5.52 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 5.87 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 5.57 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 5.81 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 5.19 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 6.24 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 5.31 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 6.10 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 5.42 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 5.97 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From QFIN's daily swings (about 3.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | -0.8% | -14.1% | — | — |
| Aug 20, 2026 | -2.9% | -19.9% | -26.9% | — |
| May 22, 2026 | -5.7% | +45.2% | +30.3% | -5.7% |
| Mar 26, 2026 | -2.0% | +1.0% | +9.6% | +30.3% |
| Feb 20, 2026 | -1.1% | -2.5% | -9.5% | -12.3% |
| Jan 9, 2026 | -3.5% | -4.2% | -5.5% | -21.9% |
| Nov 19, 2025 | -14.2% | +2.6% | -1.2% | -24.3% |
| Oct 9, 2025 | -2.2% | -9.4% | -20.1% | -37.3% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among QFIN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 27, 2025 |
41.14 +618.5% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 24, 2025 |
24.14 +321.7% |
| 200-day average | 12.22 +113.5% |
| 50-day average | 8.60 +50.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 6.10 +6.5% |
| Now | 5.72 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
5.69 -0.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
5.69 -0.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 5.31 -7.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 8 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.