QLYS
Moving with the market
- QLYS −0.35% on the last session vs SPY +0.08%: −0.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices QLYS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
196.41 +3.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
205.14 +8.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 188.96 · prior close 189.63 | |
| Bargain buy side |
183.08 -3.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
175.30 -7.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 181.00 | 2 in 10 days | 198.67 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 183.08 | 3 in 10 days | 196.41 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 185.04 | 4 in 10 days | 194.33 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 170.88 | 2 in 10 weeks | 210.44 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 175.30 | 3 in 10 weeks | 205.14 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 179.52 | 4 in 10 weeks | 200.31 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From QLYS's daily swings (about 3.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -2.6% | -2.6% | — | — |
| Sep 25, 2026 | -5.7% | +11.9% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -5.1% | +10.2% | +25.3% | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -4.9% | -3.9% | +5.9% | — |
| Aug 14, 2026 | -5.0% | -2.2% | -0.4% | — |
| Jul 21, 2026 | -8.1% | -5.6% | +29.8% | — |
| Jul 8, 2026 | -2.5% | +3.8% | +18.4% | +30.2% |
| Jun 22, 2026 | -2.5% | +18.3% | +29.2% | +66.8% |
Big drop and big gain: among QLYS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Dec 19, 2023 |
205.89 +9.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 205.14 +8.6% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 9, 2026 |
202.42 +7.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
189.63 +0.4% |
| Now | 188.96 |
| 50-day average | 183.03 -3.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 175.30 -7.2% |
| 200-day average | 130.23 -31.1% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 10, 2026 |
76.20 -59.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 14 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.