QS
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- QS +3.44% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: +3.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Wed after the close (date not confirmed): EPS −$0.18 expected (3 analysts).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices QS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
4.06 +3.2% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
4.22 +7.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 4.07 · prior close 3.93 | |
| Bargain buy side |
3.81 -3.1% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
3.66 -6.9% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 3.77 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 4.10 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 3.81 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 4.06 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 3.84 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 4.02 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 3.58 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 4.32 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 3.66 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 4.22 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 3.74 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 4.13 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From QS's daily swings (about 3.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | -7.1% | +1.3% | — | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -8.2% | -13.4% | +4.8% | -33.4% |
| Apr 1, 2025 | -1.9% | -15.0% | -3.9% | +66.7% |
| Feb 28, 2025 | -2.3% | -4.5% | -11.3% | -14.7% |
| Nov 15, 2024 | -2.3% | +8.9% | +12.0% | +12.4% |
| Jun 18, 2024 | -1.0% | -3.0% | +61.1% | +15.1% |
| Nov 1, 2023 | -2.5% | +13.0% | +34.2% | +36.3% |
| Dec 15, 2022 | -3.7% | -12.4% | +14.3% | +17.4% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among QS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Dec 22, 2020 |
131.67 +3139.1% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 31, 2025 |
18.44 +353.6% |
| 200-day average | 7.02 +72.8% |
| 50-day average | 5.25 +29.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 4.22 +3.8% |
| Now | 4.07 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
3.93 -3.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
3.93 -3.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 3.66 -10.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.