QTEX
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- QTEX +10.27% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +10.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 2 insider open-market buys.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices QTEX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
1.64 +12.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
1.89 +29.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 1.61 · prior close 1.46 | |
| Bargain buy side |
1.30 -10.9% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
1.13 -22.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 1.25 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 1.70 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 1.30 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 1.64 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 1.35 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 1.58 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 1.04 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 2.05 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 1.13 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 1.89 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 1.22 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 1.75 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From QTEX's daily swings (about 11.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | -15.5% | — | — | — |
| Sep 22, 2026 | -8.9% | -12.6% | — | — |
| Sep 9, 2026 | -6.1% | +0.4% | +104.6% | — |
| Aug 20, 2026 | -24.0% | -0.8% | +0.6% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -8.1% | +20.3% | -6.2% | — |
| Jul 20, 2026 | -6.3% | -20.2% | -24.5% | — |
| Jul 8, 2026 | -6.9% | -11.8% | -34.2% | -1.2% |
| Jun 24, 2026 | -10.5% | -11.2% | -48.2% | -54.7% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among QTEX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Oct 26, 2021 |
9.59 +495.7% |
| Highest analyst target | 5.00 +210.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 5.00 +210.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 5.00 +210.6% |
| 52-week closing high Jun 1, 2026 |
3.08 +91.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 1.89 +17.3% |
| Now | 1.61 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
1.46 -9.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 1.13 -29.9% |
| 50-day average | 1.01 -37.5% |
| 200-day average | 0.95 -41.3% |
| 52-week closing low May 21, 2026 |
0.30 -81.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 5 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.