QXO
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- QXO +4.55% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +4.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices QXO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
10.69 +3.5% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
11.15 +8.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 10.80 · prior close 10.33 | |
| Bargain buy side |
9.98 -3.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
9.57 -7.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 9.87 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 10.81 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 9.98 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 10.69 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 10.09 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 10.58 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 9.33 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 11.43 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 9.57 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 11.15 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 9.79 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 10.90 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From QXO's daily swings (about 3.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -6.6% | -8.7% | — | — |
| Sep 29, 2026 | -4.1% | +4.2% | — | — |
| Sep 9, 2026 | -4.1% | -11.3% | -12.5% | — |
| Aug 20, 2026 | -5.5% | +3.9% | -8.5% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | -4.5% | -1.9% | -12.1% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -6.0% | +18.7% | +3.4% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -7.3% | -2.5% | +12.0% | -22.2% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -4.3% | -11.9% | -19.6% | -29.3% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -1.7% | — | — | — |
| Aug 31, 2026 | -1.8% | -0.2% | -12.0% | — |
| Jul 8, 2026 | -3.9% | +4.5% | +3.5% | -17.4% |
| May 19, 2026 | -4.5% | +9.1% | +11.3% | -11.5% |
| Jul 30, 2024 | -80.1% | -5.6% | +16.8% | +28.6% |
| May 11, 2022 | -8.1% | +14.0% | +9.2% | +88.6% |
| Apr 8, 2022 | -3.9% | -1.4% | -15.1% | -5.5% |
| Jan 21, 2022 | -4.9% | -22.4% | -17.7% | -26.2% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among QXO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jun 10, 2024 |
235.61 +2081.6% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 13, 2026 |
27.07 +150.6% |
| 200-day average | 17.97 +66.4% |
| 50-day average | 12.80 +18.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 11.15 +3.3% |
| Now | 10.80 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
10.33 -4.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
10.33 -4.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 9.57 -11.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 14 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.