RACE
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- RACE +2.49% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +2.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.9× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices RACE only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
392.26 +1.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
398.42 +2.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 397.00 · prior close 387.35 | |
| Bargain buy side |
382.50 -1.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
376.59 -2.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 380.94 | 2 in 10 days | 393.87 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 382.50 | 3 in 10 days | 392.26 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 383.96 | 4 in 10 days | 390.77 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 373.15 | 2 in 10 weeks | 402.09 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 376.59 | 3 in 10 weeks | 398.42 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 379.81 | 4 in 10 weeks | 395.04 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From RACE's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among RACE's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jul 25, 2025 |
511.74 +28.9% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 21, 2026 |
436.54 +10.0% |
| 50-day average | 407.43 +2.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 398.42 +0.4% |
| Now | 397.00 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
387.35 -2.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 376.59 -5.1% |
| 200-day average | 366.27 -7.7% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 20, 2026 |
311.04 -21.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 11 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.