RAL
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- RAL −2.47% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −2.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices RAL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
71.24 +1.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
72.95 +4.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 68.17 · prior close 69.89 | |
| Bargain buy side |
68.56 -1.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
66.95 -4.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 68.14 | 2 in 10 days | 71.69 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 68.56 | 3 in 10 days | 71.24 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 68.96 | 4 in 10 days | 70.83 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 66.03 | 2 in 10 weeks | 73.98 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 66.95 | 3 in 10 weeks | 72.95 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 67.83 | 4 in 10 weeks | 72.01 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From RAL's daily swings (about 2.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | -3.5% | +4.1% | +13.2% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -3.4% | -11.2% | -3.0% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -3.0% | -1.2% | -5.6% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -3.2% | +4.1% | +6.7% | +9.3% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -2.7% | -2.4% | -8.8% | -3.4% |
Big drop and big gain: among RAL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 5, 2026 |
73.96 +8.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 72.95 +7.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
69.89 +2.5% |
| Now | 68.17 |
| 50-day average | 67.92 -0.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 66.95 -1.8% |
| 200-day average | 57.59 -15.5% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 5, 2026 |
38.28 -43.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 1 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.