RBC
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- RBC +0.96% on the last session vs SPY +0.00%: +1.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices RBC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
506.46 +1.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
516.42 +3.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 503.30 · prior close 498.54 | |
| Bargain buy side |
490.75 -1.6% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
481.28 -3.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 488.24 | 2 in 10 days | 509.06 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 490.75 | 3 in 10 days | 506.46 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 493.09 | 4 in 10 days | 504.05 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 475.80 | 2 in 10 weeks | 522.36 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 481.28 | 3 in 10 weeks | 516.42 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 486.44 | 4 in 10 weeks | 510.94 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From RBC's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -2.6% | -0.4% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -3.2% | +2.9% | +6.5% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -2.1% | -9.1% | -9.4% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | -1.9% | +0.2% | -12.7% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -4.5% | +4.0% | -7.5% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -1.8% | -2.7% | -5.5% | -13.8% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -3.7% | -4.0% | -11.1% | -19.5% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -1.9% | +1.7% | -6.0% | -21.1% |
Big drop and big gain: among RBC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 25, 2026 |
648.89 +28.9% |
| 200-day average | 551.43 +9.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 516.42 +2.6% |
| 50-day average | 509.77 +1.3% |
| Now | 503.30 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
498.54 -0.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 481.28 -4.4% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 16, 2025 |
369.71 -26.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 21 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.