RBLX
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- RBLX +4.02% on the last session vs SPY +0.07%: +3.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices RBLX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
49.44 +4.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
51.89 +9.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 49.45 · prior close 47.54 | |
| Bargain buy side |
45.71 -3.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
43.55 -8.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 45.14 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 50.07 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 45.71 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 49.44 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 46.26 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 48.86 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 42.33 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 53.39 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 43.55 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 51.89 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 44.72 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 50.53 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From RBLX's daily swings (about 4.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | -4.9% | -5.0% | — | — |
| Sep 16, 2026 | -5.6% | +3.3% | — | — |
| Aug 26, 2026 | -4.0% | +9.7% | +23.6% | — |
| Jul 31, 2026 | -26.9% | +6.2% | +16.0% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -5.4% | -12.0% | -29.2% | -12.0% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | -4.4% | -0.1% | -33.8% | -22.4% |
| Jun 22, 2026 | -8.3% | +15.0% | +5.0% | +8.4% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | -3.5% | +15.7% | +32.6% | +8.1% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among RBLX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 29, 2025 |
141.56 +186.3% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2025 |
138.56 +180.2% |
| 200-day average | 53.81 +8.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 51.89 +4.9% |
| Now | 49.45 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
47.54 -3.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 43.55 -11.9% |
| 50-day average | 43.17 -12.7% |
| 52-week closing low Aug 12, 2026 |
35.54 -28.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.